Senators who can say No to Duterte

• Published date: 26 March 2019
• Publication title: Philippines Daily Inquirer

With seven weeks before the 2019 midterm elections, opposition candidates continue to face daunting odds - but I wouldn't go so far as to say, as a friend who took part in many campaigns before has said, that they are irrelevant.

Recent history has proven yet again that many, if not most politicians, are loyal mainly to their own interests; they will change parties, or switch sides, if their self-interests are on the line. Note, for instance, that the Liberal Party won a large plurality (almost 42 percent) of the congressional seats in the 2016 elections; candidate Rodrigo Duterte had very short campaign coattails. Once the extent of his victory was clear, however, many newly elected or reelected politicians were overcome by, shall we say, a sudden clarity of mind. In the country's election casino, the first rule has always been to get a seat at the table. What the office-holder does after is up to him, or her.

High stakes. If the administration wins a real supermajority in the Senate in the second half of President Duterte's elected term, I am certain it will mean that Vice President Leni Robredo will be impeached on made-up charges; that the Constitution will be revised, and not through a constitutional convention but through the houses of Congress convening as a constituent assembly; that onerous treaties with China will be concurred in; and that Sen. Leila de Lima, already the target of dirty tactics, will be expelled from the Senate.

By real supermajority, I mean a total of 16 senators will form a voting bloc that will consent to and concede every major demand of the President's. We have a supermajority in the 17th Congress, but in name only; the main reason the administration resorted at the last hour to the patently unconstitutional quo warranto proceeding against Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno was the administration could not be sure it had at least 16 votes for impeachment. With the likes of Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla, Jinggoy Estrada, Francis Tolentino and Imee Marcos in the Senate, the administration will be enjoying the advantage of a new arithmetic.

(Incidentally, a member of Congress can be expelled or suspended by a two-thirds vote of all the members. De Lima, who is detained under manifestly unjust circumstances, would not even be able to vote for herself, if a resolution for expulsion were to be put to the vote.)

As it is, the prospects of the opposition candidates, including Neri Colmenares and labor's Leody de...